Alternative Econometric Model for Venezuelan power utilities to estimate the electrical demand of the industrial sector
AUTHOR: Francisco M. Gonzalez-Longatt
ADVISOR: Prof. Luis Cedeno Freites.
ABSTRACT. The present research offer to the Venezuelan utilities, an alternative econometric model to forecast the electrical power demand of the industrial sector. This research was conducted in the form of feasible project, with an exploratory study, in order to obtain the variables that must belong to a model for forecasting electricity demand. The study was carried out, taking the interview as a tool for collecting information. Two interviews were conducted as unstructured nature of diagnosis and a focus on open questions that were applied depending on the experience of the subjects in the sample. Based on the results of these interviews, it was determined that the proposed model should have at least two variables: price of electricity and the level of economic activity. There are also other variables such as temperature, gas price, number of costumers, which were considered as candidates for the model. Once established the characteristics of these variables, we proceeded to establish the functional structure of the model, in this case were examined buildings and log-linear log: the model of Koyck under the rationalization of Nerlove with fixed effects test was finally considered which concluded that the best estimate is the type of log-log, including the real marginal price of electricity, fixed charge and the actual demand of industrial value added; providing for 5% significance
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